What it costs to produce is irrelevant to the manufacturer. They will tack on research and development costs, price it high simply because it's new and they can. For example, as I said in another thread, when CDs first came out they were 2-3x the price of vinyl even though they were much easier and cheaper to manufacture than cutting grooves in fragile 10 inches of vinyl.
Also, Blu-ray is supposed to be more expensive to manufacture. It will take a complete factory refit, unlike HD discs.

HD-DVD and Blu-ray are for the mass. DL DVD recordables are not. I've never bought a DL media for my own use. PS/3 will be bought even for children and that uses Blu-ray. Production cost is very important for "mass" things in the IT industry especially when competition is very tough. Look at both the Blu-ray and HD-DVD groups. They are both trying to reduce cost and attract more supporters from the related industries and general public that are also future consumers. This kind of competition didn't exist when CD and DVD first appeared.

This is the only reason why I want BDs now. I have hundreds of music albums in FLAC format and have to use about 30 DVDs to archive it all, maybe more. Same for my large MP3 collection, which is currently on over 330 CD-Rs (would take ~52 DVD-Rs)! I want BDs (at least 23.3-GB version) ASAP. The same goes for my growing emulation (ROM+ISO) collection, which stands at about 50 DVDs (and growing) currently.

It is a no-brainer to figure out that the true benefits of HDTV aren't going to show up for about 10 to 20 years, perhaps when the political climate is different and HDTV technology becomes a commodity. Right now, _any_ new formats are going to be plagued with DRM, which is why I'm not buying SACD nor DVD-Audio yet, but would love to make my own DVD-Audios from my CD collection using open-source software (I forgot what it's called, but it allows you to make your own DVD-Audio from WAV files). The only hurdle: Lack of lower-priced players!

I think the word 'stuff' was meant to be said...

It took me less than 20 years to leap from black-and-white TV to digital SD/HD TV so I guess what you feel about HDTV is drastically different from what I do. Most households in South Korea by now can watch HDTV.

If there's one thing I know about technologies and progress, most predictions prove to be wrong because current generation of humans are accustomed to think only of the present.

Blu-ray or HD DVD? Neither....for the forseeable future. New technology is always overpriced, potential for format wars, frequent bugginess/compatibility issues with hardware/software...and of course good 'ol DRM.

Besides holding some more data, what does Blu-ray or HD DVD bring to the table - other than a few more cut scenes, audio tracks and DRM.

VHS is still around 10 years after DVD went mainstream - DVD will still be here in 10 years. DVD holds enough data for the vast majority of users, has good software/hardware support, is received well, consumers feel comfortable with the technology, etc. DVD video still has an image quality higher than most peoples televisions can play, even though we'd all like a HDTV!

And in 10 years DVD Jon or some other entrepreneur will have worked their magic on the Blu-ray and/or HD DVD DRM.

I guess the change is going to be soon and sudden, then...

VHS -> CD -> DVD -> HD -> post-HD

The difference is the lifespan of each major technology standard generation is getting noticeably shorter. It took generations for VHS to enter the mainstream market after the first appearance of TV. It took one or two decades since then for CD to be used first for audio and then video and computer data storage. It took about a decade or even less than a decade in some countries for DVD gradually replace VHS and CD. And now DVD has been in the market for less than 10 years and so many of us already have HDTV sets, HDTV tuners (STB), HD-ready computer monitors, HDTV PC PCI and USB cards, HD-ready computer codecs, HD-ready blue laser disk technologies for standalone recorders, HD camcorders...

it may be true that HDTV has taken off much quicker then previous technological transitions in media, but when you say 'many of us' your not saying a majority.

look at the US for example, the last numbers i saw was 10-20% have hdtvs, and most of those people dont even have HD programming. its the same with things like high speed internet adoption.

it may seem rapid in one area, but that is certainly not the worldwide story. it will still be a long time before you see even close to dvd adoption rates for HDTV and HD disc formats. i could see it in the next 5-10 years if HDTV set prices continue to fall.

as far as the two HD formats go, i just hope for a quick end to the format wars, wether that means manufacturers developing dual format drives or the respective developers coming to a unified format.

the way things are going, we will have media released in one format or another, with some cases of them being released on both formats, which will be even more confusing to most people. as far as the pc goes, i would be happy with hd-dvd or blu-ray.

but i wouldnt put my faith in backups of that size to optical media, i dont care how 'strong' they claim to be, ill take HDD backups over blu-ray anyday. having 50GBs of data stored on one disc is a scary thought lol. now i might use them for a second backup, but certainly not the first line of backup.

By "many of us", I meant many enough to justify initial market entry on the part of the big manufacturers. 10-20% of the US is an extremely high number to be enthusiastic (if you were like Samsung or LG or Sony, that is.) Since when early adopters of the richest countries took care of the rest of the world? I mean do you refuse to buy new cars just because most of the world can't afford one?

ok well saying it that way cleared that up.

form what you said, you made it sound like blu-ray or hd dvd might see a faster adoption rate then dvd, etc.

i dont think we will see HD optical discs adopted any faster then dvds and maybe even a bit slower.

of course there are those that ride the bleeding edge, but those people have always been there. there was a good reason to get dvd over vhs, but selling hd discs over dvd is not a slam dunk. strickly movie wise, there is much reason unless you dont already own a dvd player and/or the dvds you want.

i wont be rebuying all my dvds on any hd disc format, its just nto worth it at any price. instead, ill save money by buying into a video processor that will handle my entire dvd collection, outputing at whatever res i need for my hdtv.

i guess im just not on the edge enough, since i dont plan on buying any hd discs or hd disc player for quite some time. a few things will need to happen first, prices will have to balance out with dvds, that includes players ($100-200 range), and the format war will have to be passed either by loosing oen format or releasing players that support both. and beyond that, there would have to be media i dont have that is released solely on HD discs.

The rate of adoption for Blu-ray and HD-DVD is already much faster than that of any of previous generations. You just refuse to accept it because you want to preserve your DVD investment.

I think it's a little premature to say that, they may have been adopted by some studios and media companies but the public will have the final say on acceptance and they haven't even entered the consumer market yet. Time will tell. It will be a big investment for the consumer, new equipment (and if history tells us anything, it will be very expensive) and it will probably take a while before there is much of a movie title inventory in the BD/HD format.

You forgot to include license holders and standalone recorder and drive manufacturers. AND tens of thousands of consumers (too few to be considered mass but critical enough) who have used Blu-ray for years. Whether some consumers like it or not indeed hardly affects market development unless some manufacturers or whole industries make some very serious mistakes. And to assume the first Blu-ray and HD-DVD products will be expensive may also be wrong. If there's anything "history" tells us, it's that the first of those newer generations will be priced much cheaper than those of previous ones.

Are you aware that the first DVD disks were factory-pressed DVD movie titles whereas the first Blu-ray disks were very rewritable cartridge-protected disks? So, how many people had DVD players by 1999? It took even longer for the United States to have 30,000,000 consumers who have at least one DVD player. Just 3 years ago, most people even here said they were staying with CD, the dominant optical storage standard then. The industry knows about it far better than most consumers because it's their billions of money to protect and to grow. Compared to DVD, Blu-ray and HD-DVD are growing faster from all aspects.

well i certainly didnt expect you to be so sensitive about the subject lol.

just as ricoman said, your putting the cart before the horse in this situation. hey if you love blu-ray so much, thats fine, but dont let it blind you from the way things work. what histroy does say is that anything new on the bleeding edge of consumers will command a premium at least for a time until it is adopted on a large scale

you seem to think since there are so many manufacturer's etc on board that consumers will just fall in line and that the market reflects production by companies.

in reality, its the consumers that drive adoption of a format. accuse me of whatever you want, but i actually do remember the vhs to dvd transition just like the cassette to cd transtion before that. the only way the price for recorders, etc will fall is if the manufacturers can sell enough volume and the only way that will happen is if consumers in a majority, are convinced they need this. what im saying is its not as obvious a need to the average joe as vhs to dvd or cassettes to cd was.

wow i cant believe you proved my point, you really believe that manufacturers know what is best for us and that we are too ignorant for our own good.

you know what is growing faster in all aspects? the hype from places like this. before even one peice of hardware or media hits the retail shelves, you make claims like its already in a full push into the industry. im not against HD optical discs at all, in fact im sure ill have them in my home along with in my pc at some point. what i am saying is that its not a slam dunk at launch. alot of other things beyond the new discs themselves has to happen as well that will hold it back from faster adoption.

My views is I would go with Blue-Ray as it seems to be a newer technology advancement. Why can't Sony the company that put together two different CD formats like +-RW together-why couldnt they do at CD-RW, DVD+-RW, DL, HD-DVD, Blue-Ray in one unit. Wouldn't that be the way to go? Does anyone know if any company or representitive from the technology sector have a comment on if this is possible scenario.

I think Samsung have said they will be producing hardware that supports both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD.

In the same unit? That would certainly be best for consumers (and Samsung).

Not only Samsung. Everyone but Sony (and perhaps Philips) and Toshiba prefers to have both in one. Samsung and LG originally have been in the Blu-ray founder group of 9 companies (the others mostly being Japanese) but they announced support for AOD of Toshiba as soon as AOD was made public knowledge a few years ago.

Nice to see what people think. However I think most of you migh be wrong.

I like blu-ray but think that HD-DVD will be the winner in the end, just like the BetaMax Vs. VHS back in the days.

It's ALLWAYS the consumers who decides what format wins or becomes most popular, this has to do with money. First DVD players cost a lot of money like 700-1000 USD, that lasted for about 3years perhaps, and now you can get most brands for 100-200 USD.

Since HD-DVD is a lot like Standard DVD it won't cost manufacturers etc a lot of money to modify production. And we all ready have DVD-R DVD+R and all those standards including authoring etc. If you put it verry simple HD-DVD is just a boost in storage space, nothing more. There are allready HD-DVD players on the market, as far as I know, or that can playback that stuff (unsure)

Besides (if I remember correctly) a HD-DVD can store about 16Gb of data, and Blu-Ray 25Gb. (This is for single layer). Anyway, you gain 10Gb dataspace per blu-ray disc but I don't think it will pan out the way everyone thinks.

The same thing can be said for DVD Dual Layer, it's still expencive and most ppl don't buy it hence the price. I am sure that getting two HD-DVD 16Gb disks (32Gb total space single side) will be far cheaper than one blu-ray disc.

That said what is interesting is that blu-ray could be the thing that takes over in the future when the discs can stor 100Gb or 300Gb or maby some other technology.

If HD-DVD or Blu-Ray will become technology that the consumer wants remains to be seen. Remember you need a HD-ready Tv in order to take advantage of the new technology. And the price is still to high for most consumers to get that.

I would absolutley not shell out about 1000-1500 USD for a 32 Inch flat HD-Ready TV. And the quality on the DVD's today is pretty good anyway for most people, and you have the DTS, Dolby Digital allready.

Well there are some thoughs for you

The only reason for the so-called format war is money. The BD backers all stand to make huge amounts of profit from all the new hardware required for BD drives and burners and re-invented disc production facilities. If you doubt this, just ask yourself why all these big companies are spending so much time, money and political juice trying to get BD accepted. BD costs more, and generates far more profit for the big corporations.

Yeah more profits, but my thoughts are, will consumers accept that ?

I will probably not get a "flat screen tv, hd ready" etc if they don't come down in price. Digital TV is much better than analog, nice picture and sound I feels it is good enought for me.

Do I really need HDTV?. Blu-Ray is better than HD-DVD and the technology can grow but I wonder if they will dump HD-DVD format completly ? if consumers don't pick up on Blu-Ray they will loose a lot of money.

It is still the consumers that in the end keeps the products alive by buying them, no consumers no product or ?

I undestand the dvd-r and dvd-r war that was on better. But this formatwar where there are so big differences ? why ? seems like a wast of time by the companys.

I think people forget the impact the ps2 had on the DVD format in the U.S. On launch date of the ps2 there was 1/2 million new dvd players(ps2's) out there, and more thereafter. I question if the ps3 will have the same effect?

Two very big misnomers that most people have missed:

1) The Blu-ray drives, like the brand new Pioneer BRD-101A, will read DVD+/-R, burn BD-RW 25 & 50 GB non-cartridge discs, but will NOT read / write CD-R or DVD-RAM media.

2) The first movie titles that will be released, which are already completed from the likes of Disney and Sony pictures, will NOT use the h.264 specification, nor will it actually have any HD content, but instead will use the same old MPEG2 compression scheme. The exact same thing is true for the HD-DVD camp for all of their original releases as well.

Here is a cool first look at the world's first released consumer BD-RW drive for computers: http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news_10120.html

This drive will be available to the general public in the USA in early January 2006. Cost is expected to start around $350-$500 initially,and drop a bit later on as market saturation occurs and as the competition rolls out their respective units as well.
Initial blank media costs are anticipated to be around $30 US for the 25 GB BD-R, $50 for 25 GB BD-RW, $55 for 50 GB BD-R and around $75 for BD-RW media. As is typical, these prices will drop as supply outweighs the market demand, and as the number of deployed drives increase.

Additionally, Pioneer will release its set-top BD-ROM drives for consumer television viewers in the late spring. The cost on those units looks to be a MSRP of a whopping $1800!

In September of 2006, a even larger capacity optical media will be available. It is called HVD, which stands for Holographic Versatile Disc. This new, cartridge style blank media will have initial capacities of 300 GB's, and on up to a full Terabyte (1,000 layers on a single disc!).

The forerunner of this technology was a now-defunct company called Constellation 3D, whose research dates back to around 1998. It uses indirect, or "incoherent" laser light, and a much tighter bandwidth on the laser than the present orange, red, yellow or blue book specs at this time.

The 300 GB media have already been demonstrated at various trade shows recently, but have actually been available in development and testing for at least 5 years.

Media prices are expected to be on the expensive side, with a 300 GB cartridge listing for $350+ in its initial release. IT guys will love its capacity for data backups, ISO and Ghost images of disc arrays on servers, etc., but this will be far too expensive for the average consumer's daily use. Eventually prices are expected to drop, as is usual with all new optical media formats.

Microsoft has even been developing a PXE (Pre-Install Environment) optical disc only OS that contains built-in virus, spam and spyware protection in an unmodifiable form. This could be another way that MS ensures a no-piracy scheme, by having the OS embedded in the media, but not installed on a HD. A HD would still be used for additional data storage of local files. This is similar to the already existing Knoppix or Morphix flavors of Linux that are currently available.

I think the Blu-ray is going to win the hearts and minds of the general populace in the early battles, edge out HD-DVD due to its later appearance in the marketplace and lack of manufacturer and movie studio support, but could lose its edge if player, burner and media prices remain too high early after the initial product releases.

It will be interesting to see when the H.264 CODEC will finally be implemented, and displace the MPEG2 CODEC for these new mediums.

BTW, HP / Compaq, who at first were firmly behind Blu-ray, is the only manufacturer to jump ship back over to the HD-DVD camp recently due to the interactive programming language being implemented. Blu-ray will be using a variation on Javascript, and HP wants the industry to use Microsoft's more robust XML based programming for its interactive media content.

A lot of food for thought!

First rule of basic economics: NON-NECESSITY GOODS (here it is blu-ray, HD-DVD, HD TV...etc.) are governed purely by COST. How much these items cost will determine whether they become the norm, what the majority of people have in their homes. IF they cost too much, they will merely be luxury items that a select 10-20% of users who can afford them will have them.

Simply put, if these new technologies cost a heck of alot of money to get, dont even think for a second that they will gain much momentum in the consumer market.

Really, how many of you would pay around $30 for a single blu-ray disc or HD-DVD? (the 30 dollar is a VERY cheap guess for blu-ray for sure. Probably a good estimate for HD-DVD.)

For me at least, no FREAKING WAY IN HELL am i gonna pay that much for a stinking disc.....but that's just me, you average Joe consumer........