Like allot of us I've heard talk of Blu-ray for awhile now.
I was wondering about the projected timeline is before the technology will become common (i.e. 'affordable').
Of course the industry will give certain figures and I am interested in those, but I'd also like to know people's thoughts on when (or perhaps if at all) Blu-ray will 'catch on'?

If Blu-Ray goes the way like DVD-Recorders, we can expect these to come down to affordable prices within two to three years.

I remember when CD recorders costed around € 5,000 in 1994 (or about then) and took about 8 years before they even came to an affordable price of around € 100. When DVD recorders were launched, these also started costing over € 1,000 but quickly fell to affordable prices in just two years.

While sony have launched its business Blu-Ray version, it may be just a few months before the consumer version comes out. I cannot see these leaving the shelves too quickly however as dual-layer DVD recordables have yet to be launched and these will likely cost only a fraction of the price of Blu-Ray recorders.

Another reason why DVD recorders took off so quickly is the ability to playback recorded DVD-Video discs in standalone DVD players. However, Blu-Ray standalone players have yet to be launched and consumers seem to be more interested in purchasing CD and DVD recordables for audio & visual content rather than using them as a PC data backup medium. Unlike CDs and DVDs, Blu-Ray discs can only be played back in a Blu-Ray drive, at least until standalone Blu-Ray players come out

The familiar standard war. Blu-ray, AOD, Microsoft WMV, EVD, and more are competing against one another.

Many consumer electronics companies are preparing for all major coming standards instead of concentrating on one.

I guess having a dual layered, double sided recordable disc would also help people to stay with DVD.

Similar things happened to CD-R. CD-R of 700MB, 800MB, and even 900MB and then 1.3GB doubled helped people to stay with CD, and prevented DVD recordables to enter the market for years. This is hardly a good thing. The earlier Blu-ray and HD-DVD enter the mass market, the better our future storage devices will be. The entertainment industry and broadcasting TV stations do not want HD-DVD and HDTV to become available to the mass at reasonable prices anytime soon because they need to invest new equipment to their hardware and software for HD-readiness. In South Korea, the government and the users want HDTV right now and the stations have been doing everything to stop it coming for a decade. The electronics industry naturally wants HD market to mature fast for higher profits. They are not going to invest too much in early phase because of fear of lack of demand.

2007-8 for mass-market acceptance, if then, I reckon. Lots of things need to be commercialised and cheapened like the 3-in-1 laser:
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/200405/04-026E/

...for prices to drop and quality go go up - and mass production to really pick up. Not to mention associated chips and media. All Blu Ray devices I've seen have looked like huge slabs of stone. I think there's lots of room for miniaturisation and improvement here.

If DVD weren't already here, people would pick up on Blu Ray so much sooner. But it is, so it'll be a long wait, I think. Very early days yet.

The closest we have at present to a "killer app" for blueray is HD video. But with the Bravo G3 and similar players we will soon have good-looking WM9- or H264-encoded HD playing off regular DVD disks.

I think that will take a lot of wind out of the sails of the enthusiasm for getting blueray adopted widely.

Right, I collect a lot of HD video. Many people around me have DVHS and I also plan to have one. I was waiting for Blu-ray and AOD but well I can't wait more. DVD has just too little.